이 기사는 2009년 03월 12일 12:53 thebell 에 표출된 기사입니다.

무디스가 12일 GS칼텍스의 외화표시 장기 신용등급을 Baa2로 한단계 하향조정했다. 등급에 대한 전망은 '안정적'을 부여했다.

리니 램 무디스 선임애널리스트는 "영업실적이 악화된데다 정유업계의 불황으로 재무적으로도 급속한 개선이 어렵다"며 "상당한 규모의 설비투자 부담까지 있다는 점을 고려해 등급을 하향조정했다"고 설명했다.

지난 18개월간 설비 투자을 위해 채권 발행을 통한 자금조달이 급증했다고 무디스는 지적했다. 정유업계 침체에 따른 운영 상황 악화와 2008년 이후 달러화에 대한 원화 가치 하락 등도 GS칼텍스에 부정적인 영향을 미친 것으로 지적됐다.

셰브론이 대주주라는 점은 긍정적으로 작용했다.

램 애널리스트는 "향후 2년 동안 GS칼텍스의 부채 대비 잉여현금 비율이 15%수준으로 전망한다"며 "신용등급 'Baa2'에서는 취약하다"고 설명했다.

"다만 셰브론(Chevron Corp)이 GS칼텍스의 지분50%를 보유하고 있다는 점이 GS칼텍스의 신용등급을 단기적으로 압박하는 요인들을 완화시켜주고 있다"고 무디스는 덧붙였다. 무디스는 셰브론에 대해 신용등급 'Aa1'과 등급전망 '안정적'을 부여하고 있다.

한편, 무디스는 정유업계 상황이 계속 악화되어 GS칼텍스의 현금 흐름에 까지 영향을 미칠 경우 등급을 추가로 내릴 수 있다고 밝혔다.

또 부채 대비 잉여현금 비율이 12~15%에 머물거나 셰브론의 지분 감소 가능성이 대두할 경우 GS칼텍스 신용등급은 하락할 수 있다고 경고했다.

[무디스 보도자료 전문]

Moody's downgrades GS Caltex Corporation to Baa2; outlook stable


Approximately US$2 billion of debt securities affected


Hong Kong, March 12, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today
downgraded the senior unsecured rating of GS Caltex Corporation ("GSC")
to Baa2 from Baa1. The rating outlook is stable. This concludes the
rating review initiated on February 2, 2009.

"The rating action reflects GSC's deteriorated operating performance and
the low likelihood of its financial profile, which was weak for its
previous rating, rebounding rapidly amid the difficult refining market
conditions, and compounded by the company's sizeable capital
investments," says Renee Lam, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

GSC's debt coverage metrics have declined over the past 18 months,
resulting from large debt-funded capital expenditures for upgrading
facilities. This has coincided with deteriorating operating conditions
in the regional refining sector and the decline in the value of the
Korean won against the US dollar since early 2008.

The combination of further partially debt-funded capex of about KRW 3
trillion in 2009-2011, and likely continuation of difficult conditions of
the refining industry, will restrain any meaningful improvement in GSC's
financial metrics in the near term.

"While GSC's projected financial position -- with retained cash flow
("RCF")/debt of around 15% in the next 2 years -- remains weak for a Baa2
rating, near-term pressure on GSC's credit profile is mitigated by the
expected support rendered by its 50% parent, Chevron Corp ("Chevron";
Aa1/stable)," adds Lam.

GSC is integrated into Chevron's global downstream strategy, and
contributes 18% to the latter's global refining throughput. Chevron also
maintains high involvement in GSC's operations and strategy. Its support
for this joint-venture, established over 40 years ago, has been evidenced
by the extension of credit lines to GSC, and flexible supplier credit
terms for crude procurement.

Moody's believes the support from Chevron cushions near-term downside
risks to GSC's rating.

The Baa2 rating also incorporates GSC's leading position in Korea's oil
sector, its vertically-integrated operations, and the likely regulatory
support for the domestic oil sector. Moody's draws further comfort from
the company's demonstrated good access to the domestic bank and capital
markets.

The stable outlook reflects the expectation that GSC will flexibly manage
its cash outlays and leverage amid the challenging refining market
conditions, and that Chevron will maintain its high involvement in GSC's
management and render it support if such a need arises.

Near-term upward rating pressure is limited given the challenging market
conditions. The rating may be upgraded if signs of market stability
emerge, or should GSC prudently manage its operations, capital investment
plans, and other cash outlays, such that it achieves an RCF/debt ratio of
over 20% consistently.

Downward rating pressure would emerge if 1) refining market fundamentals
further deteriorate to levels that severely impact GSC's cash flow
strength; or 2) GSC embarks on capital investments of a scale beyond
Moody's current expectation, such that RCF/debt remains at below 12 -
15%. Any signs of reduction in Chevron's commitment to GSC will also be
negative for the rating.

The last rating action with respect to GSC was taken on February 2, 2009,
when its senior unsecured rating was placed on review for possible
downgrade.

In assigning the rating, Moody's has made reference principally to the
Global Independent Refining and Marketing Industry rating methodology,
which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Credit Policy & Methodology,
in the Ratings Methodologies subdirectory.

GSC is a leading oil refining and marketing company in South Korea. The
company owns and operates the nation's second largest oil refinery, which
has a daily refining capacity of 770,000 barrels, and accounts for 27% of
national crude distillation capacity. It maintains an extensive retail
network as well as substantial petrochemical operations.

Hong Kong
Renee Lam
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Asia Pacific Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: (852) 2916-1150
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Hong Kong
Gary Lau
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Asia Pacific Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: (852) 2916-1150
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077